Cindy taylor
Real Money Has Obama Winning 375 Electoral Votes
Over at Intrade, you would have to wager that Barack Obama (D) would exceed 370 electoral votes to get better than an even-money return on your wager.
A contract on Obama reaching at least 370 now stands at 43.7 (returns 100 if successful), while reach 360 is 55.0, meaning it would cost you $55 to win $100. If you expect a blow-out, you can still get 6-to-1 odds on Obama reaching 400 EVs (contract costs 14).
If you had waited until now to lay a wager, there aren’t any real bargains left as contracts on an Obama win are above 50 in states totaling 375 electoral votes. Here are where Obama stands in the red state battlegrounds:
Indiana: 53.8 Missouri: 61.8 Florida: 65.2 N. Carolina: 68.7 Nevada: 76.0 Ohio: 79.5 Virginia: 81.8 Colorado: 86.0 New Mexico: 88.2 Iowa: 92.5
There only real places where you could make money on an Obama redstate upset win are — if you have the guts:
Montana: 37.0 N. Dakota: 36.5 Georgia: 30.0 Arizona: 18.0 S. Dakota: 15.3 Arkansas: 14.4 W. Virginia: 14.1 Tennessee: 10.2 Louisiana: 10.0 Mississippi: 10.0 S. Carolina: 9.0
I think if I were to take a total flyer on an unexpected upset (MT, ND, and GA aren’t ‘unexpected’ any longer), I’d take South Carolina at 9, which has been off everyone’s radar but early voting there among African-Americans is apparently quite remarkable. I doubt it would happen, but 10-1 odds are pretty nice…
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