Presidential Forecast, 7/18: Is Static Good?
electoral college: obama 293, mccain 184, toss-up 61 national popular ballot: obama 46.4%-43.1% mccain

(dark blue (227): obama +8.0% or more lean blue (66): obama +3.0%-+7.9% white / toss-up (61): obama +2.9% to mccain +2.9% lean red (98): mccain +3.0%-+7.9% dark red (86): mccain +8.0% or more)
Since the last update, new polls in Arkansas, Kansas, Oregon, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina, Virginia and Washington once again result in no category changes to any state. Over the past week, there have been new polls from over twenty states, and no categories have been changed as a result of any of those polls. That is a very strong sign of a static campaign.
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Since the campaign appears static right now, it is worth asking if a static campaign is good for Obama. Certainly, holding a statistically significant lead in states totaling 293 electoral votes would appear to be a good place for the campaign to freeze for Obama. On the other hand, while the state polls are static, McCain has gained about 1.1-1.6% in national polls, so perhaps the campaign is best described as somewhere between static and a slight trend toward McCain. Perhaps Obama has reached his ceiling, and the rest of the campaign will be about maintaining this lead, which really isn’t very large. Further, a static campaign could be a side effect of the caution we have seen from the Obama campaign recently, when a less cautious campaign would have been able to build a huge lead over the past three weeks.
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Or, maybe I am just overanalyzing things. The campaign has moved about 1% nationally, which hasn’t had any real impact on the state-by-state situation. And maybe there isn’t anything more to say about it than that, given that people won’t really start paying attention to the campaign again for another five and a half weeks when convention season begins.
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State by state details in the extended entry. Solid Obama: 227 Electoral Votes

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