Ashes in the Emperor

Day 6: Travis County Early Vote Projections & Analysis

here is tonight. + travis county oct 23 report+ travis county mail ballot report+ my travis county ev mapping tabulation despatch ballots- a total of 458 came in today.total vbm cast in 2004: 9,5892008 vbm cast in 4 days: 12,208in person voting-a out-and-out of 14,544 votes were dash today in person (15,002 with mail ballots). this is a steeper drop than expected for a saturday.the university of texas, as expected, had its usual 90% weekend dropoff so no cause for alarm there. the additional drop off today, if i had to guess, was because the longhorns were playing- not kidding. plus, since no voting sites are located at malls with in 2004, we missed unconscious on those sites that in reality increased on the weekend. the outspoken rock performing arts center managed to squeak out an increase saturday which was the just site to do so.howson library and parque zaragoza center had their 6th day of voting declines, though it is unlikely they would set up stopped that today or tomorrow anyways, being the weekend.a total of 146,476 votes possess been cast in 6 days in travis county, or 24.04% of all voters. this 6-day mount up to is fifty-fifty to 67% of the total early vote cast in 2004. total near the start back up projections-as shown in the graph below, the lower than expected turnout today stiff all models this era with a signal. while this may be a fluke for reasons mentioned above, and tomorrow could come in slightly stronger if the “pews to the polls” has an effect, i’m going to drop the ev suggestion.today’s “best guess” total travis ev projection: 330,000

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